Austin conference: 'a microcosm of the whole country changing its mind'

Originally published in Current, Jan. 29, 1996

After deliberating in Austin, James Fishkin's ideal electorate viewed flat tax proposals less favorably, grew more supportive of giving states responsibility for the social safety net, and agreed more strongly that the U.S. should cooperate militarily with other nations to address trouble spots.

Perhaps more importantly for an experiment partly funded by PBS's Democracy Project, delegates to the National Issues Convention felt "empowered'' by the experience, said Fishkin, the Texas political scientist who originated the deliberative poll concept. When participants responded to the question, "I have opinions about politics that are worth listening to,'' 68 percent of the participants strongly agreed, an increase of 27 points over their response in a poll taken before the Austin convention.

"There were many significant changes'' in delegates' opinions during the deliberative poll, but also many beliefs that held firm, said Fishkin at a Jan. 25 [1996] press conference. "What stayed the same provides the context for what changed.''

On economic issues, for example, the majority of delegates indicated in both the "before'' and "after'' polls that reducing the federal budget deficit was "very important.'' But, afterwards, more delegates believed that average workers are not adequately compensated, and 86 percent indicated that the country was not spending enough on education and training.

Delegates' responses to a question on the flat tax also showed dramatic shifts: in the original poll, opponents and supporters of the proposal were evenly split at 43 percent, and only 13 percent said they didn't know. After deliberating, almost half opposed the proposal, 29 percent favored it, and 20 percent said they didn't know what to think about it.

Fishkin declined to say whether this shift occurred because the chief flat-tax proponent, Republican candidate Steve Forbes, was not favorably received by the delegates. Sticking closely to his campaign message in responding to their questions apparently did not go over well with the sample of citizens gathered at the University of Texas.

In the baseline poll, participants responded as members of the general public, Fishkin noted. He attributed lost support for the flat tax to delegates "realizing it has further implications.''

Fishkin also reported these shifts between the two polls:

• increased agreement that economic pressure is the biggest pressure on the American family (from 35.5 to 50.7 percent);
• strengthened support for making divorce more difficult to obtain as a "very useful'' or "somewhat useful'' way to strengthen the family (from 36.1 to 56.7 percent);
• a 13 point increase in those who believe Washington should let states decide how much to spend on a social safety net for low-income Americans (from 49.5 to 62.5 percent);
• increased support for sparing foreign aid from spending reductions (from 9.3 to 20.6 percent);
• a 17 point increase among those who agree strongly that the nation should cooperate militarily with other nations to deal with trouble spots around the world (from 20.8 to 37.7 percent).

"It's a microcosm of the whole country changing its mind,'' said Fishkin. "My opinion is, the voice of the people is more valuable if it's deliberative.''

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