From Austin: a thoughtful pause before the election-year storm
Originally published in Current, Jan. 15, 1996
By Karen Everhart Bedford
What exactly is this weekend's National Issues Convention, and what is it supposed to accomplish?
It's a brand new concept--never before tested on American soil and never timed to coincide with a major election. Presidential candidates, television critics, professional pollsters, and an undoubtedly unaware American public--no one knows what to expect from it.
PBS and NPR will broadcast five hours of the event live this weekend, when convention delegates meet individually with presidential candidates--not all of whom had agreed to participate by Current's press time. On Tuesday, organizers were awaiting word from President Clinton, Sen. Bob Dole, and Patrick Buchanan about their appearances.
The State of the Union address, which President Clinton will deliver two days after the Democratic portion of NIC, is the major reason he has not committed to the event, according to Cory Shields, spokesman for the NewsHour, which is producing PBS's live broadcast. "There will be a Democratic presence, we don't know who it is yet.''
To compensate for the candidates who won't be there, the NewsHour has lined up panels of "opinion leaders'' who will appear at the convention prior to the candidates, said Shields.
Glorified focus group?
James Fishkin, originator of the "deliberative poll'' concept on which the National Issues Convention is based, describes PBS's biggest experiment of the election year as having great potential to enhance the democratic process by engaging informed citizens and political candidates in a dialogue about major issues.
Timed as it is to precede the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, NIC potentially will be "be the one time when the country will be able to pause, take a deep breath, and think through the issues,'' Fishkin wrote in Voice of the People, a book in which he laid out the rationale and process of the deliberative polling.
The unprecedented nature of the event inevitably draws responses of wariness, puzzlement and skepticism.
"I guess I don't really understand the purpose of this National Issues Convention, because it sounds like a glorified focus group,'' said a TV critic during a session at the recent press tour. "And other than that ... I don't understand what it's for.''
Even to those familiar with the practice of civic journalism, which attempts to amplify the people's concerns in election campaigns, NIC is a different animal. It is not a snapshot of public opinion. It is not a focus group. It is not a town hall meeting.
What it is is an attempt to create a representative, ideal citizenry--one that gives full consideration to complex issues and engages political leaders in dialogues. By measuring the delegates' positions on the issues before and after the convention, any shifts in opinion will recommend policy choices to the larger public.
"A recommending force"
Fishkin described the best possible outcome of $4 million experiment in his book: "If televised deliberative polls succeed in communicating the deliberative process, they can help transform the public agenda of an engaged public--to an agenda citizens will care about, and be attracted by, because it will be framed in terms that speak to their concerns in ordinary life. . . .''
This fall the poll started much like any other--when the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center randomly selected a sample of the electorate that was demographically representative of the entire population. These people were interviewed face-to-face for their views on issues, and then invited to participate in the deliberative portion of the poll by travelling to Austin, Tex., Jan. 18-21, all expenses paid.
The 600 voting-age citizens who assemble at the convention will spend the first two days immersed in moderated, nonpartisan discussions of the economy, foreign policy and the American family. These sessions are designed to inform the convention delegates and prepare them for dialogues with the presidential candidates, which PBS and NPR will air this Saturday and Sunday.
At the end of the Austin weekend, delegates will answer the same polling questions, in an effort to measure whether and how much their opinions shifted during the deliberative process.
"A deliberative poll is not meant to describe or predict public opinion,'' wrote Fishkin. "Rather it prescribes. It has a recommending force: these are the conclusions people would come to, were they better informed on the issues and had the opportunity to examine those issues seriously. It allows a microcosm of the country to make recommendations to us all after it has had a chance to think through the issues. If such a poll were broadcast before an election or a referendum, it could dramatically affect the outcome.''
"Another black eye''
Professional pollsters voice the loudest objections to deliberative polling. "This experiment will give the public a distorted view of what constitutes an opinion poll, and give polling another black eye,'' wrote pollster Warren Mitofsky in a symposium published by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.
"Voters are to be influenced by a contrived media event staged just before democracy's most authentic acts--free and open elections--are to commence,'' wrote Everett Ladd, director of the Roper Center.
Critics of deliberative polling describe several flaws in the experiment. They question whether the sample will be truly representative, whether the delegates' briefing materials will be unbiased, whether the publicity of the event or group dynamics will influence the outcomes.
Fishkin said the Roper Center symposium revealed "a lot of misunderstanding of what we're trying to do.'' The whole point is not to gather the real-life opinions of people, but to evaluate what positions people would come to "if they had a chance to examine competing arguments.''
"What we're trying to do is influence the dialogue and use the media in a constructive way to bring about a public voice worth listening to . ... We're trying to use the methodology in a constructive new way.''
Connection to campaign
Since the deliberative poll is the main focus of the event, just what role the candidates will play in the event remains unclear, particularly since commitments from the leading candidates have not been forthcoming.
Republican candidates who will participate in the convention are former Gov. Lamar Alexander (Tennessee), publishing heir Steve Forbes, Sen. Phil Gramm (Texas) and Sen. Richard Lugar (Indiana).
The candidates "should have something to say on the issues,'' explained Fishkin. "It would be nice at the beginning of the primaries to have some connection to the campaign dialogue. By being there in their very person, they will provide that connection.''
Meetings between the candidates and a nationally representative sample of informed citizens "presents an opportunity that has never occurred before,'' and will be an improvement from normal campaign dialogue.
Earlier news about the issues convention.:
Later news: Coverage of the issues convention in Austin, 1996.
Web page created Jan. 17, 1996
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